How is Japan’s airline capacity shaping up in 2023?

With Japan set to be a popular destination for meetings and incentives in 2023, demand for flights is expected to be high.

Airline data insights provider OAG says that airline capacity is steadily returning to Japan. For the month of December, OAG notes that the number of airline seats available would reach just short of 30 million, and while this is a 27% increase on figures from January 2022, it understandably remains well short of the number from three years ago, prior to the Covid pandemic. For the full year of 2022, capacity is 41% up on 2021 but 30% down on 2019.

Two major airlines in Japan, All Nippon Holdings, which operates carriers such as All Nippon Airways and Peach Aviation, and Japan Airlines Company, which operates Japan Airlines and Jetstar Japan, among others, are the dominant players. OAG says that between them and their subsidiaries, they accounted for almost three-quarters of all capacity operated in 2022.

Event professionals can expect to see a slow return of international airline capacity in Japan. With the country having only fully reopened in October, following pandemic restrictions, OAG says it has taken time for airlines to re-establish patterns of international flying.

It said: “While 2022 capacity was down 30% overall compared to 2019, domestic capacity was only down by 10% while international capacity was down 77% across the full year. Of course, the position has improved through the past year and as of December 2022, domestic capacity is only 2% behind where it was in December 2019, and international capacity is ‘only’ 54% behind.”

OAG notes that the largest international airline, All Nippon Airways, is flying 47 international routes in December 2022, the highest number since March 2020 when it flew 64 different international routes.

“A close look at the data shows that the airline has focused on adding capacity before adding back too many more airline routes. However, having finally reached a point where the average capacity per route is on par with where it was before Covid-19 affected international air travel, we should perhaps expect the airline to add more international routes in 2023.”

The largest pre-pandemic route still not being flown (aside from routes to China) is Hanoi to Haneda (in Tokyo), followed by Haneda-Munich, Dusseldorf-Narita (also in Tokyo) and Narita-Taipei.

The changing use of Haneda and Narita for international air services is also evident, says OAG. One of the largest routes no longer being operated is Haneda to Vancouver but it came back briefly before being switched to Narita-Vancouver in March 2022, a route that was not being flown when the pandemic started.