SAF as a portion of all renewable fuel production will grow from 3% this year to 6% in 2024. Photo Credit: Adobe stock/VectorMine
“It is government policy that will make the difference. Governments must
prioritise policies to incentivise the scaling-up of SAF production and
to diversify feedstocks with those available locally.” Willie Walsh,
IATA’s director general
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revealed that
in 2023, SAF accounted for 3% of all renewable fuels produced, with 97%
of it going to other sectors. In 2024, SAF production is expected to
account for 0.53% of aviation’s fuel need, and 6% of renewable fuel
capacity.
SAF as a portion of all renewable fuel production will only grow from
3% this year to 6% in 2024. This allocation limits SAF supply and keeps
prices high. Aviation needs between 25% and 30% of renewable fuel
production capacity for SAF. At those levels aviation will be on the
trajectory needed to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Until such
levels are reached, huge opportunities will be missed to advance
aviation’s decarbonisation, says IATA.
CAAF/3 outcome
The Third Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) hosted by
the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed a global
framework to promote SAF production in all geographies for fuels used in
international aviation to be 5% less carbon intensive by 2030. To reach
this level, about 17.5 billion liters (14Mt) of SAF need to be
produced.
“Governments want aviation to be net zero by 2050. Having set an
interim target in the CAAF process they now need to deliver policy
measures that can achieve the needed exponential increase in SAF
production,” said Walsh.
Demand is not the issue: Every drop of SAF produced has been bought
and used. In fact, SAF added US$756 million to a record high fuel bill
in 2023. At least 43 airlines have already committed to use some 16.25
billion litres (13Mt ) of SAF in 2030, with more agreements being
announced regularly.
Governments must set a policy framework that incentivises renewable
fuel producers to allocate 25-30% of their output to SAF to meet the
CAAF/3 ambition, existing regional and national policies as well as
airline commitments.
Traveller support
A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support for SAF.
Some 86% of travellers agreed that governments should provide production
incentives for airlines to be able to access SAF. In addition, 86%
agreed that it should be a priority for oil companies to supply SAF to
airlines.
Supportive policy objectives
Effective production incentives for SAF should support the following objectives:
· Accelerating investments in SAF by traditional oil companies
· Ensuring renewable fuel production incentives encourage sufficient SAF quantities
· Focusing stakeholders on regional diversification of feedstock and SAF production
· Identifying and prioritising high potential production projects for investment support
· Delivering a global SAF Accounting Framework
Unlocking diversification
About 85% of SAF facilities coming on line over the next five years
will use Hydrotreatment (HEFA) production technology, which relies on
inedible animal fats (tallow), used cooking oil and industrial grease as
feedstock. Limited quantities of these necessitate policies to:
· Diversify SAF production by increasing production through
pathways already certified, in particular the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and
Fischer-Tropsch (FT) which use bio/agricultural wastes and residue.
· Promote investments in, and the fast-tracking of
certification for, new SAF production pathways currently in the
developmental phase.
· Identify more potential feedstocks to leverage all SAF
technologies to provide diversification and regional options, including
those with side-benefits such as environmental restoration.