Two factors are critically important: reliable and timely testing, and rapid contact tracing. Photo Credit:Gettyimages/AnnaStills
“It’s going to take longer than we think to get through this,”
cautions risk-management expert Bruce McIndoe. Even with three promising
vaccines on the horizon, the dramatic rise of Covid-19 cases in the
U.S. isn’t expected to wane before March at the earliest, he says.
“We're just going to have to deal with it.”
The activities people worry about — meetings and travel, specifically
— are not the at the heart of the problem, notes McIndoe: “It’s
actually the humans and how they interact with other humans."
McIndoe, founder of WorldAware and president of McIndoe Risk
Advisory, expects this virus to be a significant global security risk
for years. After the vaccines come to market, he says, “it's going to
take three and a half to four years, at best, to distribute them
globally. Here in the United States, the average citizen is not likely
to see the vaccine until early Q3 of 2021.”
And the vaccine “is not a silver bullet,” McIndoe stresses.
Here’s why: If a vaccine has 80% efficacy — and everyone on the
planet gets vaccinated — 20% of people can still be dangerous to others.
“The vaccine will help reduce the number of people getting infected and
dying,” he says, “but it's not going to result in a significant change
in transmission; we will continue to need masks and social distancing.”
The good news: We have the science-backed power to manage the threat
to “an acceptable level of risk” for meetings and travel, as well as
social gatherings. Following are seven tips for helping prevent the
spread of Covid-19, gleaned from McIndoe’s presentation, "Promoting Safe
Travel in a Covid-19 World,” at Northstar’s Global Incentive Summit
earlier this month.
1. Three musts: Wear a mask, keep your distance, wash your hands
We
have the tools to deal with this. If they are deployed aggressively and
comprehensively, they might be more effective than a vaccine — and
that’s according to the director of the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention.
Additionally, research indicates that wearing a mask reduces your
risk of contracting the virus by 77%; social distancing reduces it by
85%, and cleaning hands and surfaces is about 66% effective. When you
start doing all of these things together, you substantially reduce the
overall risk of contracting and especially transmitting the virus.
2. Don’t be too concerned about flying
A lot of people
have angst about going on an airplane. According to a study by the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the odds of contracting Covid-19
on an airplane and dying as a result are about one in 540,000 if the
flight is 85% full.
For comparison, the chance of being killed in a plane crash is one in
11 million. Every time you get in a car, your risk of dying is about
one in 48,000 in the United States.
3. Avoid crowds at the airport
Minimise the amount of
time you're in the food courts and bars and bathrooms — especially the
bathrooms. Of course, on a long trip you've got to go, so get in, do
what you need to do, wash your hands and get out. If you eat in the
airport, find a quiet gate or area that isn’t occupied, rather than
sitting down in the food court with other people.
4. Don’t put too much faith in testing
The challenge
with testing is that once you’re infected, it takes two or three days to
get enough viral load in your body to trigger a positive test. That
diminishes the value of testing. Some countries are eliminating their
14-day quarantines but still require a two- to three-day buffer.
Typically, you'll have to test negative before arriving, quarantine for
two or three days after arrival, and take another test. If it's
negative, you're good to go.
5. Choose lower-risk destinations
Two factors are
critically important: reliable and timely testing, and rapid contact
tracing. Those measures have been missing in the United States, says
McIndoe, but New Zealand, China and other countries have really done a
great job, resulting in almost full suppression of virus transmission.
When
choosing a meeting or travel destination, research how those two
activities are being managed. Other important factors: mask mandates,
distancing protocols, enhanced indoor air and ventilation filtering
systems and strict cleaning protocols.
6. Anticipate human error
“Right now, people are the
weakest link in all of this activity,” says McIndoe. Based on his own
observations at recent conferences, he says, “95 or 98% of the time
people are doing the right thing. But as the night wears on and the
drinks are flowing and people want to do karaoke, they drop their guard.
And it's just that little bit of weakness that suddenly puts people at
risk. It’s up to the destination and the event planner and the people
who are running the programme to create an environment that encourages
safe behaviour.”
7. Feeling off? Stay home
Individual responsibility
starts before you leave home. Are you feeling well enough to travel?
It's a very difficult decision for someone who might be feeling not
great but not terrible. They might figure it’s just a cold or allergies
and push on with the trip. When we look at the data for Covid cases, a
lot of times people actually did not feel well but did not get
tremendously sick; they were carrying the virus.
As we go into 2021, expect to see a pre-departure testing protocol,
requiring a negative test before you leave home or a rapid test at the
airport. This will provide an initial assessment of your wellness and
gauge whether you are actively infected.
Source: Northstar Meetings Group